DLsite sales estimates

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#1 by PortaTerzo
2021-12-06 at 01:25
< report >Apparently, some eroges give their sale number, while most don't. They do give top 30 bestseller ranking like "25th place for 10 days". So, I wonder if there is a way to make a realistic estimate of the sales based on that data?
Like if VN is in the top 30 for 10 days, is it fair that they sold at least 1,000 copies? If I'm not mistaken, the average eroge isn't even bought 100 times.

Assuming that the top seller sells 500 per day and applying Zipf's law we would get top #5 of:

# Num of Sales
1 500
2 250
3 167
4 125
5 100

Does that seem reasonable?
#2 by harleyquin
2021-12-06 at 01:43
< report >Dlsite rankings are based on gross revenue rather than number of copies sold. This holds true for the doujin segment, but the pro segment should operate in the same way.

For the doujin segment, look up the game "Kichurea" in the all-time rankings for proof of the assertion. It had very low sales numbers relative to its peers, but the retail price is so much higher to compensate.

For the games made by professional developers, using Dlsite alone as an indicator of commercial success is a waste of time. Most if not all games are sold via multiple retail channels, so only the developers themselves can tell if they've broken even. One indicator of potential success is the number of pre-orders made on certain retailers, but even that won't be reliable since there's no concrete proof of the development costs.Last modified on 2021-12-06 at 12:53
#3 by barfboy
2021-12-07 at 15:14
< report >DMM/Fanza shows sales numbers for doujin and smaller nukige titles like works from Norn/Miel/Cybele. For example Boukensha Guild no Sei Jijou ~ Ai Suru Aibou no Tame ni Guild Shokuin ni Netori Haramase Onaho ni Sareru Elf & Dark Elf~ which has been out for 4 days already has 143 sales
link
While some doujin titles have sold well over 20,000 copies
link

There's no way A-list titles are selling less than this. Also according to the Japanese eroge fan community most eroge sales are within the first week so I imagine your numbers are skewed by a factor of 10-100
#4 by triority
2021-12-07 at 17:40
< report >If it's any help, my English VN's have sold far better than I expected (although that is relative), mainly I have them constantly on sale for around 10 yen.

"No Regrets" has sold 108 copies, OVN 1 : 139 and OVN 3 is 79

It will be interesting to see how "No Extra Regrets" gets on - besides being adult (due to the subject matter), it's sale price is 110 yen...
#5 by gvbn
2021-12-07 at 19:20
< report >DLsite has a bunch of coupons that require 2 or more products, so people add some random 10 yen product just to activate the coupon for the product they actually want to purchase.

I know because I've done it myself. And no, 0 yen free products don't count towards it.Last modified on 2021-12-07 at 19:21
#6 by PortaTerzo
2021-12-07 at 20:59
< report >#4 Abundance of eroges implies a high demand for them, meanwhile, non-eroges seem to have higher standards. So, you selling your VN for nickels and still getting an only a handful of buying, isn't surprising.
#7 by triority
2021-12-07 at 21:31
< report >Oh yes - I knew I wouldn't get many sales, especially as they are all in English too. I did it because I could, and I have no regrets (no pun intended)

Steam is my main source of sales.Last modified on 2021-12-07 at 21:33
#8 by cyber-dragon
2021-12-09 at 07:34
< report >On DLSite, you can see the number of purchases on Tools / Accessories, and there seems to be 3 purchases for every review. I don't know if that applies to VNs, but you can use it as a rough guide.
#9 by veshurik
2021-12-10 at 06:33
< report >Hm, long time ago DLsite wrote me and wanted to publish my VN on their site.
After I finally released the game, I wrote to them, and... No answer. Lol.

I don't know, but I find some statements in Twitter that it's better not to work with them. Maybe, someone here has practice experience
#10 by PortaTerzo
2021-12-10 at 13:48
< report >#9 Well, I don't think you want to work with them if you can avoid it. I heard their cut is 40%, as opposed to Steam's 30%. But they seem to hold a monopoly on Japan's eroge market, which makes avoiding them hard.

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